Photo via Pam Davis

Boise State Hosting New Mexico; Score Prediction

Science of Prognostications

Last week the predicted score was 35 – 17 Boise. Well, I was half right Wyoming only scored 17.

How are scores predicted by the experts? They analyze everything. They look at the history of everything and combine that with probability. The formulas are as complex and complicated as the calculations needed to land a space module on Mars.

Here’s the way I do it. I have a hat full of numbers. I draw them out. If I don’t like them, there are other numbers.

Let’s Talk Some Football

Boise State is 8 – 1. New Mexico is 2 – 7.

Playing the game on paper, it’s a Bronco win. However, when flesh, blood, bone, muscle, strategy, emotions, and funny bounces are factored in—nothing can be taken for granted.

However, when coaches analyze a team’s capability, strengths and weaknesses, they use statistics. Boise head coach, Bryan Harsin, is faster than a hired gunslinger when it comes to stats.

There are all sorts of competing statistics. Thus, it is said statistics are nothing more than two columns of numbers just itching for a fight.

Statistics are talking points to explain an outcome. They don’t predict an outcome though may be suggestive.

Games Are Sometimes Fed By Emotion

Sometimes prognosticators attempt to tie emotions to a game.

New Mexico’s game last week against Air Force was concealed due to the sudden death of the Lobo’s defensive end Nahje Flowers.

Whether that will be used as an emotional incentive is not known. Coaches do that—“remember the Gipper.”

The Broncos will have the emotion of Senior Day. Hopefully, this will not be the last game the seniors play on the Blue. After all, there is a conference championship to play.

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The Lobos

Boise has had trouble with back-up quarterbacks. New Mexico has lost two starters thus far. Brandt Hughes was lost due to an injury. Sheriron Jones succumbed to some nefarious off-field activity. Thus, they will be starting their third-stringer, Tevaka Tuioti.

The Lobos returned only one starter on defense this year but that hardly means anything with the three/fourths of the season in the bag.

The Broncos defense will dominate. The only concern will be their receivers out running BSU d-backs.

The Broncos

As far as the Broncos are concerned it is difficult to determine who the starter will be at quarterback, Hank Bachmeier or Chase Cord. It was a surprise not seeing Bachmier even take some sideline tosses last week when it looked as if Cord might come out.

If it’s Bachmier or Cord the arrow points heavily toward the Broncos. Even though Cord has more time on campus than Bachmeier, the later has most of the experience.

I’m not convinced the o-line needs maligned as some critics let on. Robert Mahone has likely been nursing an injury from the opening game. Andrew Van Buren is a sophomore and George Holani is a true freshman.

Last year the Broncos averaged 4.2 yards per attempt. This year it’s 4.3 yards. It’s about the same; even a hair better.

Mahone suited up last week but didn’t see any action. It would be nice to see him back in action.

The Broncos will likely try a balanced attack because the Lobos appear to be stronger in the run than pass defense.

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Let’s Pull Some Numbers

Let me find my hat.

A four, an eight, a one, and a zero.

That’s it 48 – 10, the good guys go to 9 – 1.


About Kenton Lewis

Kenton lives in Boise. He is the former publisher of the Boise State sports site, Smurf Turf; writing exclusively about Broncos football and basketball. He is also a novelist and short story writer.

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