Picking The Top 25 Upsets; It’s Us Against Them

There will be a suspension, of sorts, for teams I want to lose. The reason is obvious; the Broncos have fallen too far out of the Top 25. It would take a miracle at this point to suggest a loss here and there might help them move up in the ratings.

Boise wins and upsets in the Top 25 help. It may take a few weeks but it is possible.

Last Week’s Picks

Notre Dame was picked to defeat VTech. That was an easy pick. The only reason I wanted Notre Dame to win, is that if the Broncos won they would have moved around the Hokies.

A & M was called to upset Kentucky. And it happened. Kentucky and football don’t really belong in the same sentence.

Colorado bested Arizona State by a TD. I picked a Zona upset—didn’t happen. I just wanted to hasten the inevitable; Colorado will eventually choke.

And I really went out on the limb for the Oklahoma State/Iowa State contest, picking the Cyclones.

Indeed, the Cyclones won 48 -42. The Cowboys played way over their heads against BSU.

Thus, of the four teams I wanted to lose, three had to be upsets and two of them were called.

This Weeks Top 25 Upset Picks

What about this week? Well, I don’t have any skin in the game this week. As mentioned the Broncos have slid too far down in the polling.

At this point, they would have to put together a string of impressive wins before granted entrance into the top 25. Nevertheless, I want to keep my skills sharp.

West Virginia travels to Iowa State. The Cyclones upset Oklahoma State last week. I’m thinking they like the taste of the upset. I’m not feeling it 100 percent but I’m going with it. Another Cyclone upset.
Wisconsin visits The Big House in Ann Arbor to play Michigan. Wisconsin will leave with their “W” firmly in place.

Colorado has played nobody this year. USC’s two losses have come at the hands of somebodies (Stanford and Texas). USC wins. Colorado begins its tumble.

Here’s the big one. Number two Georgia goes to number 13 LSU. Former third-string Ohio State quarterback, Joe Burrow will have a career day. Death Valley will be too much for Georgia. Bulldogs choke.

Explanation—Of Sorts

Last week a reader wondered why I’d like to see a team who has beaten Boise State lose? Their theory is sound. Pollsters may have a tendency of looking at Boise State more favorably if a team who beat them has an outstanding record.

The comment was generated primarily about the Iowa State/Oklahoma State game. I wanted an Iowa State upset. However my view is based upon if Boise keeps winning and Oklahoma State keeps winning, the Broncos will never move around them in the polling. Boise State will always remain a 44 – 21 beat down behind Oklahoma State. A lot of teams can fill that void.

A case in point is the 2014 season. Boise lost its opener to # 18 Ole Miss. Theoretically, if the Broncos won the rest of their games and Ole Miss did the same, the Broncos would have followed them through the polls, yet remained behind the Rebs.

The Broncos lost a second game that year to Air Force. BSU was nowhere to be seen in the polling.
In week nine, Ole Miss was ranked third and the Broncos were still nowhere near the top 25. Theoretically, Boise should have been at least in the top 25.

How did the rest of the 2014 season pan out? Ole Miss dropped a few and the Broncos kept winning. Boise ended ranked 16th in the AP and Coaches Poll. Ole Miss finished behind Boise in both polls.
My theory is that a Boise win and the loss of an opponent who had beaten them is better for the Broncos than if their opponent continues to win. I don’t see victors dragging other teams behind them up the polls.

In the theory of dragging teams with a winning team up the polls, a team could play the top twelve teams in the nation and lose each game by one point. Their record would be 0 – 12 and ranked 13th—in theory.

Remember this; it may appear on a Mensa exam.


About Kenton Lewis

Kenton lives in Boise. He is the former publisher of the Boise State sports site, Smurf Turf; writing exclusively about Broncos football and basketball. He is also a novelist and short story writer.

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